While there are certainly people who believe that predictive analytics has no legitimate place in our criminal justice system, not everyone agrees with them. Having discussed the opinions of certain detractors in the first installment on this article, we take a look at a few of the people who believe that predictive analytics are the future of law enforcement and the criminal justice system.
An example of this would be the results that the police department in Memphis, Tennessee saw once they started using predictive analytics in their policing methods. The software was introduced in 2006, after the city saw a significant rise in their crime rate. But by 2013, Memphis had seen their crime rate go down by 29 percent, which is staggering when compared to other cities during that same period of time.
According to John F. Williams, the crime analysis unit manager with the Memphis Police Department, it was the result of the software and its practical applications. Working together with the University of Memphis’ Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, the Memphis Police Department developed a software program called Blue CRUSH (Criminal Reduction Utilizing Statistical History). Using this integrated software, the department was able to properly allocate resources to where they were most needed and identify “hot spots” that needed additional policing.
With this data, the department was able to reduce the city’s crime rates using a number of strategies like high-visibility and directed patrols, targeted traffic enforcement, specific task forces and targeted investigations. The results were substantial, and allowed the department to better respond to “displacement” which takes place when crime is reduced in one area, only to increase in another spot as offenders relocate to less policed areas.
This software saves time and money and reduces errors
One of the major reasons, it is argued, that predictive analytics is the future of the criminal justice system is that integrated software systems save time and money, and reduce errors. Additionally, by allowing all parties involved in every aspect of criminal justice have access to the same integrated information, better
According to the National Institute of Justice, the use of predictive analytics allows officers to “anticipate, prevent, and respond more effectively” to crime that hasn’t even happened yet. From the perspective of a police department, whose goals includes preventing future crime where possible, and solving past crime to ensure justice, it is easy to see why predictive analytics would be an appealing solution. After all, since most departments are faced with shrinking budgets and rising crime rates, anything that makes the job easier would be welcomed.
With the number of comparisons that have been drawn between “predictive policing” and films like Minority Report, it is easy to understand people’s reluctance to accept the idea. But if you think about it carefully, every one of us is affected by some form of predictive analysis every day. Do you have car insurance? Your rates are set in part by statistical information that predicts the likelihood that you will make a claim. Have you applied for credit? Your credit report uses statistical analysis about whether you will promptly meet your financial obligations. If you apply to colleges or graduate schools, you’ll take a test that will help predict your academic success. In the end, predictive analysis isn’t anything new. It’s just new to law enforcement.
Join us next time as we wrap up this interesting subject, and look at how a balance can be struck between reducing crime rates, and honoring civil rights.